ALWAYS BET ON BLACK - Update 26

SLOW DOWNTREND WITH POSITIVE FUNDAMENTALS

These last few days the market has been moving on a slow downtrend following the support line of Fibonacci Fan. Although the latest price moves are outside of the Fibonacci downtrend, there has not been any move to the upside confirming that we are out of the downward trend and heading north.

The MACD in the 1 hr time frame confirms this slow downtrend but it is starting to show some signs of bottoming with the recent price moves. Again just a suspicion on my part without any positive confirmations.

Here are some signs if improvement:

 

In a downtrend we can also use the Fibonacci Retracement tool; select the tool click on Low and then on High. This sets the important testing levels for a rebound and continued move to the lower prices. In the overall picture of the downward trend we bounced from 23.5 to the 50% retracement and then headed lower past the 23.6% and now closer to retesting the previous lows of 23.5.

What lies ahead in the short time is difficult to predict. Personally I am positive and buying on the lows but the indicators fail to provide positive signs.

Fibonacci extensions can also be used to assess the key support and resistance lines below the current low 23.5K in the event of a downward move. Just like in the upside we have the 161.8% which would put us in 16 to 14.5K depending on which highs and lows are used.

To measure this extension line one would click on the previous high of 38.3K and then on the previous low of 24.5K. This would give the low extension line of 161.8% at 16K.

This seems very unlikely given all of the strong fundamentals but we can use these tools to assess the possible moves.

If we had a further correction to the low side I would expect that previous support floors would prevent the price dropping to 14 to 16K.

Here is a previous longer term chart where these floors can be displayed. Here we used previous highs and lows to establish support lines at 20K and 12K.

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April 30, 2014 by 1 comment 2098 viewson Technical Analysis by buy-black